The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem

It’s Not As Bad As You Think—It’s Worse

“The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition.”

–Ruy Teixeira, December 9, 2020, The Liberal Patriot.

The Democrat Formula

The GOP Formula

Political Conclusion: The Latino Vote, if it is split 50-50, allows the Republican Party to defeat the Democratic Party (assuming the White vote and Black vote turnout stays the same percent of the total vote). They are indeed the Swing Vote for the several next generations.